Convergence

Do you have a Nook or a Kindle? Do you have a "smart phone?" If you do I wonder if you see the same trend I do.

My Nook has a browser and my Droid smart phone has a Nook application. My laptop has a camera and mic, and runs Skype. I have three reader applications on loaded on it too. So, my phone reads, my reader browses and my laptop both reads and calls. Convergence is in the air.

Apple has begun to realize where all of this is going with its I-pad. We are heading towards a single device that does it all. The limiting factors at the moment are size and video but I suspect both can be dealt with soon.

What does this mean for business? Several things come to mind.

The next generation of devices is looming and will be here soon. I am not sure how soon they will arrive but I saw a laptop with a tablet style screen for about $800 at Sam's Club recently. Sam's is not my idea of a leader in technology but rather is a good bellwether for what is on the market.

We can expect these devices to appear on desks soon. Apple is a boutique maker. I doubt I-pads are coming to desktops soon. But the PC versions are already on the market and they will soon be price competative. In fact I saw one in use in a specifications review recently.

These are thin client devices. No one is going to pack the storage or power for serious database work onto a device the size of a Kindle. If we could do it we wouldn't because we are looking for collaborative environments and the security issues would make them unusable. So, look for these things to emerge as the front end of clouds.

The use of a device like this will have implications for users.

• Their data will be at risk as it moves from the server to the client. Look for more work on encryption.
• The workplace schedule already changed by the micro-processor is about to change more.
• Smart rooms are I think going to replace conference rooms.  Instead of large tables look for usb connected projectors and smart-boards.  One already sees this in universities and some technology companies.  
• "Meetings" will be increasingly conducted using collaborative software.  Already colleges are delivering courses using this media.  The customer service implosion on airlines will accelerate this trend.
• The memo and report became electronic files.  Now the reader will restore some of the formating and elegance that was a part of business writing before e-mail. 
• How databases are designed and implemented will reflect their emerging status as the raw material for analytic products.  ETL processing will be simplified as we surrender transactional efficiency to the power of the cloud's servers and look to the goal in analytic terms. 

American and Western business generally has to find its cost basis improvement in efficiency.  We will never be able to match the low cost effective labor markets available to Asian companies.  The search for process improvement and production efficiency will drive this convergence.